White Sands Weather Forecast Office
Detailed Weather Discussion
                     
Last Updated: 0855L  21  May  2018  by  A. Koperski
                    BACKDOOR COOL FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/MORNING BROUGHT A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  DEWPOINTS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NM ROSE FROM THE  SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN WSMR IS NEAR 0.75 INCHES, AND PROGGED TO INCREASE .  THE MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A GREAT DEAL OF POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WITH  MODEL OUTPUT  SHOWING CAPES OF 2700 J/KG;  AND  AN LI  OF -6  FOR EXAMPLE.  LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS PROGGED UNTIL AFTER 1800L.  PROGGED PW OVER SOUTHERN WSMR IS NEAR 1.25 INCHES. THIS IS THE NAMM OUTPUT. GFS SHOWING LOWER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY, SO COMPROMISE SHOULLD WORK.
            
                 SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WITH CLOSED LOW IS STILL NEAR STNRY OVER/NEAR  THE GENERAL WEST COAST/ CALIFORNIA AREA.  ROTATION SHOWING WELL ON GOES 16  VISIBLE IMAGERY. CENTER OF ROTATION IS WEST OF LAS VEGAS, NV, Q-STNRY.  MEANWHILE OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NM. VERY LOW CLOUD DECKS ARE IN PLACE,  RANGING FROM 1,500-3,000 FT AGL .   MOISTURE INCREASE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SE-S FLOW FROM TEXAS AND THE EASTERN MEXICO VICINITY. 
               NAM PROGGED POSITION IS GOOD.  LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD LATER TUESDAY, WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS MONTANA.  NEXT TROUGH FROM THE GENERAL GULF OF ALASKA VICINITY, IS PROGGED ON A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE SE.  ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATER THURSDAY.  THIS LOW WILL ALSO BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE SAME POSITION THAT THE FIRST CLOSED HAD.   THIS WILL BE DUE TO A MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER  THE INTERIOR WESTERN STATES.
              LOW  WILL EJECT NE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR WEST, AS DID THE FIRST.  ONLY ACADEMIC, AS EXTREME DRYING HAD ALREADY TAKEN PLACE IN THE EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY, AS DRYER SW-W FLOW WILL HAVE DISPLACED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.