White Sands Weather Forecast Office
Detailed Weather Discussion
                     
Last Updated: 1200L 16 Feb 2018 by  S. Startz
UPR-LVL PATTERN HAS A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING SWWRD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO BAJA CALIF WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS PATTERN IS PUMPING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND CAUSING THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE RANGE. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OVER THE AREA REMAIN OVER AN INCH, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP IT AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH THIS EVENING. 
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP, SUBTROPICAL MOISUTE OVER THE AREA TODAY, RESULTING IN A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE RANGE, WITH FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATING AT LEAST 0.5 TO 1 INCH OVER THE BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS ARE INDICATED TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AND HEAVY RAINFALL (AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE IS NOT OUR OF THE REALM OF IMPOSSIBILITY). FOG WILL ALSO BECOME PROBLEMATIC TODAY & TOMRROW MRNG, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SAN AUGUSTIN PASS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD START TO WIND DOWN AFTER TODAY, AS LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CONUS EXPANDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD, AND MOISTURE IS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD FROM LOCAL FORECAST AREA.  RAIN WILL END TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE WIDSPREAD AREAS OF FOG OVER THE BASIN SAT MRNG DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS, WET GROUND, HUMID CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SAT AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF AFTER 0900L.
BREEZY TO GUSTY AND WARMER SUN & MON.  THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ON SUNDAY, WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A FINAL WEAK IMPULSE OVER THE STATE. 
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGHS TRACKS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THOUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY & MILE, AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO GUSTY EACH DAY.
MAJOR CHANGE ON THE WAY AS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINS TO DIG TO THE SE. EXPECT THIS TO BEGIN AMPLIFICATION  OF THE WESTERN LONG WAVE IN A BIG WAY.  WINDS ALOFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHOULD INCREASE IN A BIG WAY INTO THIS WEEK, THEN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES.  FINAL AND STRONGEST SHORT
WAVE SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY. EXPECT THAT WINDS ALOFT OVER THE DESERT SW WILL HAVE INCREASED EVEN MORE BY MONDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC LIFT WITH TROUGH SWINGING BY TO THE NORTH, TERRAIN INTERACTION, AND DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WINDIER DAY OF THE TWO WITH PHASE II WINDS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (COULD EVEN HAVE AN ISOLATED GUST OVER 55 MPH IN THE BASIN).
CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON TUE AND WED.